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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still