Daily Killings in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Data

The mean figure of daily homicides monthly in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh government data. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide data could fail to point to improved national stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen over these past months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Violent cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military operations to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central components of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety experts urged caution that relying on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is notably true given the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly concerning because it might obscure days when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.