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This Sunday, the nation of CAR will undertake a crucial series of four votes, encompassing the presidential race, national assembly, and municipal offices.

A Crowded Presidential Field

Seven candidates are vying for the top office, including former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were cleared to stand by the constitutional court after being initially barred. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the last two elections, while Dondra briefly served under the incumbent.

Opposition Hopes and Public Discontent

The opposition hopes to capitalize on widespread discontent in a country where conflict remains a constant threat. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a similar number living as exiles in bordering states.

"This is an opportunity to commend the remarkable recovery of the country," noted a UN regional official, adding that obstacles persist.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is largely predicted to secure another term. He first entered politics in 2008 when appointed prime minister, holding the post until a rebel coalition toppled the government in 2013, triggering a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent transition period, his perceived impartiality from the warring factions powered his runoff win in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

There are fears that supply-chain issues and insecurity could disrupt the vote, particularly in the countryside. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is offering security and organizational aid that the country's weak systems cannot manage.

Further issues include the voter list being published only online, a significant barrier in a nation with scarce online access. These irregularities have prompted an opposition boycott and could, as noted by analysts, "disenfranchise large segments of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many citizens fear that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 charter change that scrapped term limits and extended mandates—would mean greater influence for foreign actors.

The president has relied on the private military group Wagner for personal security, and even after its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to fold its fighters into a successor entity. In contrast, Rwanda has taken a different approach, focusing on business ventures within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Recent reports have claimed the administration evicted its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded facility to accommodate a foreign-run livestock operation. A critical commentary accused the leadership of being "intent on sell off the nation piece by piece."

Despite a newly signed agreement with rebel groups offering hope of stabilization, the election moves forward under a shadow of uncertainty and external competition.